NPD - Natural Perils Directory

Natural Perils datasets are used within the finance sector, by insurers and reinsurers to refine products and pricing. Success requires accurate information of sufficient detail. UK subsidence claims rise to exceed £500m per annum following dry years - a good reason to manage subsidence risk more effectively.

Cranfield University’s National Soil Resources Institute (NSRI) have designed an easy-to-use and unique dataset, the Natural Perils Directory (NPD), to assist the insurance market with risk-management decisions on subsidence, flood and wind, through using their wholly owned, Government-recognised National Soils Data.

Use of the Natural Perils Directory is allowing several of the leading British insurance companies to improve or protect their claims experience on existing buildings insurance portfolios and to target products at lower risk areas where the potential for profit growth is highest.

Modelling Environmental Vulnerability

Greater risk requires greater knowledge

Changing climate and extreme events means damaging floods and subsidence are increasing in frequency and intensity. Insurers need to have accurate and appropriate information to assist in managing their insurance portfolios. This means using environmental datasets which can provide a greater understanding of the potential risks associated with these major challenges.

Ground Subsidence

The soils of Britain vary extensively in their texture (the amounts of sand, silt and clay they contain), and their respective property insurance claims rate. Each soil type responds in a specific way to seasonal variations in climate, and it is this response that determines the impact on building foundations. Unlike other currently available models, which concentrate on the underlying geology, Cranfield’s Natural Perils Directory incorporates information on the layer that most affects one and two storey building foundations and therefore the domestic building insurance market.

Cranfield’s Ground Subsidence Model has evolved from the understanding and evaluation of a number of complex elements including clay-related shrinkage, the compression of unconsolidated, soft subsoils, frost-heave and underground sand abrasion and cavitation. For clay-related subsidence, the soils’ potential shrinkage rating is combined with climatic information detailing the intensity of soil drying through the summer to provide the final ground subsidence rating. Almost 1,000 soil types have been individually assessed.

Flood Extent

Cranfield’s Flood Extent dataset comprises three elements - the riverine, lacustrine and coastal/marine flood provinces. The riverine and lacustrine province is defined by the actual distribution on the ground of alluvial sediment - the tell-tale evidence left behind by past flood waters. The same principle applies at the coast where marine sediments blanketing low-lying areas around the coast that are vulnerable to flooding during storm and tidal surges.

Wind Exposure

Cranfield’s Wind Exposure dataset provides a high-level empirical summary of areas subject to prolonged exposure to wind. Whilst not being a storm-track model, the wind exposure dataset has been used to determine areas more subject to wind damage, such as tile-blow.

NPD Offering

What Cranfield and NPD offer

The Natural Perils Directory provides:

• Accurate assessment for subsidence, flood and windstorm exposure for Great Britain;
• Unique data based on the National Soil Maps for England, Scotland and Wales;
• Output on CD-ROM, in GIS and textfile format;
• Postcode updates provided regularly via Geoplan Ltd.;
• Six probability categories for clay subsidence;
• Peat, Sand, Silt and soft soils subsidence ratings;
• Flood area extent identification;
• Wind exposure are identification;
• Technical support visits from expert Cranfield scientific and technical staff;
• Comprehensive User Manual;
• Assistance in-house with system application and integration;
• Four product options to suit your level of requirement.

Access to Cranfield's:

• Business and Technical consultancy;
• Development and Research.

Levels of detail to suit your needs

The Natural Perils Directory is supplied to two levels of detail to match the main levels of Postcode rating used. NPD-1 and NPD-2 are supplied as summary datasets for each of the 9,600 Postcode Sectors, NPD-3 and NPD-4 are supplied to the full exit-level Postcode Unit (1.6 million items).

Other spatial interpretations, for instance using the Ordnance Survey’s Address Point product, may be undertaken by arrangement.

The support packages also vary depending on the requirements of your company. Below is a summary of the packages available, we would be pleased to discuss these options with you in person.

NPD Benefits

Why use NPD?

NPD offers a number of attractive benefits and features, enabling:

• The maximisation of financial opportunities by targeting products at lower risk areas where the potential for profit growth is highest;
• An increase in the understanding of your exposure to risk through accurate and detailed environmental datasets;
• The ability to make decisions based on interpretations of the soil layers that support most foundations directly, rather than upon underlying geology;
• A unique solution that works to enhance your current subsidence, flood and wind exposure risk underwriting techniques- not necessarily to replace them;
• Flexible output at Postcode Unit or Postcode Sector (sector or delivery point);
• The use of clay-related subsidence climatic scenario outputs to introduce or to enhance in-house claims forecasting models;
• Easy incorporation within in-house actuarial risk modelling.

Contact Cranfield

Natural Peril Directory (NPD) is marketed via Cranfield University’s National Soil Resources Institute.